Chicago Fire - Colorado Rapids: Preview

By: Kyle | April 25th, 2008

Win your home games, draw your away. If you’ve followed soccer for any time, you’ve probably heard this strategy expressed. I, personally, hate draws. To me they’re hardly better than a loss. In fact they’re 2/3 of a loss and 1/3 of a win. In a playoff race, they’re just as much a two point penalty as they are a one point gain.

So why try for one the road? Because, sometimes, you play a team like the Chicago Fire on the road. And one point is a lot for a team like that to give up in their own stadium.

The Chicago Fire has the best defense in soccer. They allow half a goal per game. That’s one goal every other game. Under traditional sports stats, a typical MLS club has only a 39% chance of scoring on them at all in a given game. The good news is, the Rapids aren’t a typical MLS club. The San Jose game notwithstanding, the Rapids are very good at scoring. Even after being shutout last week, the Rapids have a goal scoring average of 1.75 goals per game, tied for 2nd in MLS. So we’ve got a good goal scoring club going up against a good goal preventing club. It should be a heck of a game at the very least.

Numbers aside, as they have all year, tomorrow’s game will come down to the Rapids midfield, on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Rapids back four is decent at breaking down attacks. Unfortunately, the Fire is not a typical club in its style of attack. Especially with Blanco, the Fire strikes quickly and without too much complexity. Many of its goals are one-touch blasts. It’s hard to break down something that never really gets set up. The only way to stop an attack like that is to keep the ball out of the Fire’s attacking third. That’s done in the midfield. If the Rapids keep possession out of the Fire’s hands, they have a real good shot at one, or even three points. A big step towards a good midfield tomorrow: wewantrapidman has a tip that Pablo should play (start?).

And three points would be monumental for this club right now. They would be back in first place in the West, one point ahead of Dallas (thanks to New England for beating them last night). If the Rapids only pull off a draw, the worst that could happen would be being tied for second in the West. It’s not great, but it wouldn’t be a disaster.

My Prediction: Chicago Fire 1-1 Colorado Rapids

I hope I’m undercutting it on the Rapids’ side, but the Fire just doesn’t give up goals very easily.

Other Game Predictions:
Toronto 1-2 Kansas City Wizards
Columbus Crew 3-1 Houston Dynamo
DC United 1-2 Real Salt Lake (Wait, what?)
Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3 Chivas USA (Come on, another Beckham “fight”).
New York Red Bulls 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Toronto 1-1 New York Red Bulls

Match Preview: MLS
Match Preview: Rapids

UPDATE: I don’t know why I didn’t think to go straight there, but not only is Pablo listed as not injured on the Rapids Match up page, Ugo is listed as Probable. We might have our actual starting XI tomorrow for the first time this year.