The biggest question on my mind as we await the game against Houston (with much anticipation, by the way) is who will be starting. The Rapids showed at the beginning of the year that they can play well in the 4-5-1. I would still prefer it because, as I’ve stated and overstated here on The Rapids Offside, this team’s power is in its midfield. A 4-5-1 allows the Rapids to keep LaBrocca on the field, and if there’s a spot for another midfielder, he’s certainly earned it. On the other hand, a 4-4-2 gets another forward up there, and Peterson’s goal in his first start this year makes a compelling case for it.

If I had to choose now, and everyone was healthy, it would go something like this:
———————Bouna——————–
—Kosuke—Facundo—Ugo—Jose—
Terry—Pablo—Christian—Nick—Colin
——————-Herculez——————-

That striker up front is a hard choice, but with a five man midfield (a few of which are very capable of scoring), Herculez, Jacob, Tom, or Omar are all fine choices.

But, looking at The Match Up page on the Rapids website, Fernando is trying something different this week. It’s right about 2/3 of the time, but it has projected Jordan Harvey playing in the back instead of Jose, Terry and Colin are benched (like last week), and Peterson’s on the left wing. If this is right, it sound’s like something Fernando might do. He seems to be playing around with the line-up while it’s still early in the season and the Rapids have a couple of easier games ahead of them, and that might be a good idea. I will certainly be interested to see how this works out, and if there’s any early season game that’s good for trying this out, it’s this one.

So why try for one the road? Because, sometimes, you play a team like the Chicago Fire on the road. And one point is a lot for a team like that to give up in their own stadium.

The Chicago Fire has the best defense in soccer. They allow half a goal per game. That’s one goal every other game. Under traditional sports stats, a typical MLS club has only a 39% chance of scoring on them at all in a given game. The good news is, the Rapids aren’t a typical MLS club. The San Jose game notwithstanding, the Rapids are very good at scoring. Even after being shutout last week, the Rapids have a goal scoring average of 1.75 goals per game, tied for 2nd in MLS. So we’ve got a good goal scoring club going up against a good goal preventing club. It should be a heck of a game at the very least.

Numbers aside, as they have all year, tomorrow’s game will come down to the Rapids midfield, on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Rapids back four is decent at breaking down attacks. Unfortunately, the Fire is not a typical club in its style of attack. Especially with Blanco, the Fire strikes quickly and without too much complexity. Many of its goals are one-touch blasts. It’s hard to break down something that never really gets set up. The only way to stop an attack like that is to keep the ball out of the Fire’s attacking third. That’s done in the midfield. If the Rapids keep possession out of the Fire’s hands, they have a real good shot at one, or even three points. A big step towards a good midfield tomorrow: wewantrapidman has a tip that Pablo should play (start?).

And three points would be monumental for this club right now. They would be back in first place in the West, one point ahead of Dallas (thanks to New England for beating them last night). If the Rapids only pull off a draw, the worst that could happen would be being tied for second in the West. It’s not great, but it wouldn’t be a disaster.

My Prediction: Chicago Fire 1-1 Colorado Rapids

I hope I’m undercutting it on the Rapids’ side, but the Fire just doesn’t give up goals very easily.

Other Game Predictions:
Toronto 1-2 Kansas City Wizards
Columbus Crew 3-1 Houston Dynamo
DC United 1-2 Real Salt Lake (Wait, what?)
Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3 Chivas USA (Come on, another Beckham “fight”).
New York Red Bulls 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Toronto 1-1 New York Red Bulls

Match Preview: MLS
Match Preview: Rapids

UPDATE: I don’t know why I didn’t think to go straight there, but not only is Pablo listed as not injured on the Rapids Match up page, Ugo is listed as Probable. We might have our actual starting XI tomorrow for the first time this year.

Reason 10,000 to love MLS: One of the powerhouses of the league has all of their players sent to another city, and then replaced with members of every team’s reserves (and Joe Cannon).

Reason 10,001 to love MLS: The league then starts threatening the city which received those players after it won back to back MLS Cups. You can’t make this stuff up.

Oh, on a tangent: did you catch “The Commissioner Speaks” (whatever that’s supposed to mean) on MLS’s website? Scroll down to the bottom where Garber insists, “I wasn’t threatening the Mayor [of Houston] in any way.” Yeah, I was just saying that I would take the team from him if he doesn’t do what I want. How’s that a threat?

So for the Rapids, it means this: Colorado has an opportunity to get a good jump on the rest of the West.
-Dallas (1 pt. back) and Chivas (2 pts. back) are matched, which means that only one of the teams chasing the Rapids will get 3 pts, or better yet, both get 1.
-Salt Lake (2 pts. back) plays Toronto, so could Dichio actually do something this week? I know, probably not (Okay, that’s probably not fair after his goal last week. But if you don’t score on Real, Danny…).
-Los Angeles (3 pts. back) plays Houston (4 pts. back), and sadly, I think they might win this one. Let’s hope that DeRo and Ching can string something together like they used to. But with Onstad out, the team will probably continue allowing 2 goals a game.

So what does all this mean? It means that with a win this weekend (and it’s a gimme if there ever was one), the Rapids should get 1-4 pts ahead in the West. And more good news: we might see Pablo back on the field. He’s listed as Probable. Really, the only member of the club that we really might like back from injury at this point is Ugo. I miss that guy.

It’s also worth mentioning that, according to the guys over at the Rocky Mountain News, San Jose picked up ex-Rapids striker Jean-Philippe Peguero, but he won’t be able to play tomorrow night.

My prediction: Rapids 2-0 San Jose

The quakes are not a team which scores goals. San Jose has proven that it is unlikely that they will score in a given game, and there’s no reason to believe that this week will be any different, especially with Bouna between the posts.

Other game predictions:
Toronto 1-3 Real Salt Lake
New York Red Bulls 1-1 New England Revolution
Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Houston Dynamo
Chicago Fire 2-0 Kansas City Wizards
Chivas USA 2-3 Dallas

As much as Rapids fans may want to forget 2007, keeping that defense together seems a good idea. Good news: a couple minor departures aside – Tony Sanneh (who was old) and Brandon Prideaux (not the best; not the worst either) – Colorado did keep their defense together. Bouna Coundoul returns in goal, along with all or parts of the following (“parts” noted parenthetically where appropriate): Mike Petke (gimpy ankle), Ugo Ihemelu (brokedick hip); Dan Gargan (lame knee); Facundo Erpen; Stephen Keel (though he’s new-ish, isn’t he?); and Kosuke Kimura. It’s possible I missed a player or two in there, so do forgive any errors.

In an attempt to strengthen that defense (or, to be honest, to help with some other on-field need), the Rapids brought in a couple new players: Jose Burciaga Jr. from the Kansas City Wizards and Tim Ward from the Columbus Crew…and let us never speak of Chase Hilgenbrinck again.

As well all know, defense isn’t just a team’s defenders. One only needs to type “Pablo Mastroeni” for anyone to get that. He, along with a few other players, will do everything they can to keep the ball away from and out of Coundoul’s goal. And I know that, in the modern era, every player on the field has defensive responsibilities, but I’m focusing here on those for whom defensive duties are primary.

That only leaves the question of how they’ll all fit and work together…and that’s what comes below.

The Parts
Goalkeepers: Bouna Coundoul, Mike Graczyk, Justin Hughes
Defenders: Jordan Harvey, Dan Gargan, Facundo Erpen, Jose Burciaga Jr., Mike Petke, Stephen Keel, Ugo Ihemelu, Tim Ward, Kosuke Kimura, Cesar Zambrano (I thought this dude was a midfielder).
Defensive Midfielders: Rafael Gomes (from what I hear), Pablo Mastroeni, Ciaran O’Brien…and quite probably a bunch of other players. Again, forgive my blind-spots. I’ll have this stuff down cold by the sixth week; I promise…

How They’ll Fit Together
If memory serves – and it’s all too possible it doesn’t – Colorado generally plays a 4-4-2. Assuming that’s correct, as well as a healthy individual players, I expect they’ll line up something like this (left-to-right):

GK: Coundoul
Defenders: Burciaga Jr. – Erpen – Petke – Ihemelu
Midfield: Mastroeni (camped out over them)

How They’ll Work (I Think)
Holy crap do these guys have lots of cover/competition for spots! That’s not only good news for Rapids-nation, it also makes a mockery of my expected line-up. For example, if Burciaga busts on the left, Erpen played that position for DC United – not always well, I know, but he’d be experienced and comfortable right away. Ihemelu could play centrally or out right and that doesn’t even get into all the possible permutations the Rapids can field on any given Saturday. Injuries forced them to do that plenty last season and it’s reassuring to know they can do it all again. (Significantly, however, there are those injuries. Is the physio huffing ether down in Denver or what?)

Simply put, the Rapids remain strong and have a hell of a lot of flexibility in the back because they didn’t give up anything meaningful. With Burciaga, they gained some offensive skills and, with Ward, they gained some dirt-cheap (as in free; he’s Generation Adidas) back-up talent.

At the same time, it’s not all sweetness and light. Burciaga strikes me as an “X-Factor.” Getting caught out often as he does, he’s not the best defender out there. Even if I get the impression he improved since moving mile-high, the same goes for Erpen; he gave DC fans fits for years with over-eager defending. Two guys like that on one back-line can spell trouble. Another player I have always found unsettling: Coundoul. More than once a game, he comes out so rangy and ragged that the scares the bejesus out of me. All the same, he gets the job done – even when he looks like he has no clue doing it.

Anyway, those are the liabilities, such as they are. In all honesty, I expect the Rapids defense will be fine in 2008. Maybe that’s why there’s not much to say here. I’ll get to the offense tomorrow….and don’t think I’ll be as stuck for words on that post.