Let’s look at the numbers: Dallas is a very average club. Their goal scoring average is 0.05 under the league average of 1.45. Their goal allowance average is 0.05 over that same average. The Rapids on the other hand have averages better then the league average, albeit not by as much as they were earlier in the season. These two clubs are fairly similar statistically. It’s also worth noting that accounting for the extra game Dallas has had this year, the Rapids are actually ahead of them on the table. Dallas has a Win Percentage of 0.433 whereas the Rapids have 0.444. These clubs are also very similar in that respect.

The fact that the Rapids are so close with Dallas in Win Percentage is a very good sign if the first nine games are any indication. Dallas currently has a 0.433 record. Against clubs that have a lower record then that, the Rapids are 0.333. Against opponents with a better record, the Rapids are 0.667. I don’t know for sure what that means, but it seems to indicate that Colorado tends to underestimate bad clubs, but against good or average clubs, they do well.

Of course, all of these numbers are only worth so much, and what will really matter is if the Rapids can get their passing under control. I would look for a four man midfield on Sunday because, thinking like Fernando, passing usually improves with a less cluttered midfield. I’m not sure clutter was the problem last week, but it’s worth a shot if that’s what he concludes.

Oh, and Preston is getting his first league start between the posts this week, so let’s keep an eye back there.

The US Open Cup always is fun. Everyone likes a knockout competition, and it’s always fun to see MLS flex their muscles (except for when that doesn’t happen. At least the Rapids might get back at the Sounders next year).

As far as I can tell, there is no way for Coloradans to see this game, which is a bummer considering that any game in the Open Cup could be the last. On the other hand, versus the Galaxy (without the only players who can score), probably not.

UPDATE: Odds are the Rapids won’t be starting their first XI tonight either. Ugo is going to be on Marcello’s show live tonight, so he isn’t going to be in LA. That makes me wish I could see the game even more. With our team’s depth, I would like to see our backups take the field.

Oh, and I guess it couldn’t hurt to make a prediction on this one: LA Galaxy 1-2 Colorado Rapids.
And that’s assuming they field Buddle. If not, forget about it: shutout.

Speaking of shutouts, Preston will probably be making his appearance as a member of the Rapids tonight. There’s only one chance to make a first impression, buddy. Do it well.

But even with Kljestan, Chivas is not penetrating the Rapids’ defense. As far as scoring goes, they either explode (like last week vs. DC) or struggle (like against Houston before that). I don’t see them or any other team exploding against Colorado.

On our side of the ball, the Rapids have never lost against Chivas at home (although they came close in 2006. Relive one of the most exciting Rapids games of all time with me, won’t you?). A win would finally put Colorado over 0.500 for the first time since opening day.

Also note: tomorrow is Bouna’s last game with the club for about a month. He’s going over to Senegal to help his nation qualify for the World Cup and the African Cup of Nations. I don’t have a stake in Africa, so why not: Come on, Senegal! Bouna deserves it. I’ve never seen a more fearless goalkeeper.

Another interesting tidbit: the Rapids’ match up page has Colin playing right back. Now that should be interesting to watch if it happens. It looks like he will be assuming the role of the great oxymoron in soccer and be an attacking defender, which means Fernando probably wants the team to play a bit more aggressively. I still doubt we’ll see any goals before the 60’ tomorrow, but who knows?

My prediction: Colorado Rapids 2-1 Chivas USA.

And that’s if Kljestan plays well. If not: shutout.

Other games:
Columbus Crew 2-1 New England Revolution

DC United 1-2 Toronto

Dallas 2-1 Real Salt Lake

Los Angeles Galaxy 2-2 Kansas City Wizards

New York Red Bulls 1-1 Chicago Fire (This should be an incredible game. Catch it if you can.)

Dallas 1-1 Houston Dynamo

New England Revolution 2-1 DC United

And now, on to the real fun: The Rocky Mountain Cup. This should be another exciting year in Real underperformance. If they fail to make the playoffs this year, they tie the league record for longest playoff missing streak (4). The only good thing about Salt Lake making the playoffs would be the possibility of the Rapids knocking them out.

And why would they make the playoffs? Do they have any reason to think that this year will be any different from the last three? They don’t have Pope, Adu, or even Eskandarian any more. Their best player is either Rimando, their frickin’ goalkeeper, or Beckerman. As for Beckerman, I liked him when he was here, but that’s about as far as it goes. I’ll be honest: I’m finding him a lot easier to dislike then to like. It’ll be fun to see him as captain in a Pablo vs. Beckerman match up. It will also be fun to make jokes about him staring Geico commercials.

This is the first and probably only season in which one team will have home-field advantage in the Rocky Mountain Cup. Next year, with the addition of the Sounders to the West, the Rapids and Salt Lake will probably only get two games against each other each year, so this is going to be a good year to reestablish our dominance. A win tomorrow, and we’re halfway to having the Rocky Mountain Cup back in Colorado.

My Prediction: Colorado Rapids 2-1 Real Salt Lake

Other Games:
Toronto 1-2 Columbus Crew
New York Red Bulls 1-1 Kansas City Wizards
New England Revolution 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Chicago Fire 2-0 Houston Dynamo
Chivas USA 2-2 DC United
Dallas 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy
Manchester Red Devils 1-0 Chelsea Pensioners
Toronto 2-1 DC United
San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Houston Dynamo

UPDATE: I’m kind of bummed The Salt Lake Offside doesn’t seem to have an author right now. To be honest, I was of looking forward to giving him a hard time whoever he was. On the other hand, he would live in Salt Lake City, so I kind of win that one by default. I mean, what kind of sports city is that? They’ve got a soccer team featuring captain hippie and a basketball team who’s star looks like a cross between Vanilla Ice and Ivan Drago.

UPDATE 2: Vegas is offering even money on the Rapids to win tonight. Either sports betting becomes legal within the next month, or I’m catching a bus to Vegas.

The San Jose game comes to mind. Let’s just hope that this weekend isn’t a repeat of that game. The Earthquakes the Rapids played are very similar to Houston: poor scoring and no wins. The players really can’t afford acknowledge that, though. That’s a big part of how upsets happen: the good team expects this win to come easier then the last ones and plays accordingly. They cease to be the good team and become a team who’s playing poorly on purpose. If the Rapids pretend this is still the team which won the MLS Cup last year, they’ll be fine.

On Saturday, the Rapids have a game against the worst team in soccer. If I was a neutral observer and sports betting were legal, I would have to get 6/1 to bet on Houston, at least.

Why? Simple, Houston can’t score. They average 0.83 goals per game, second worst in MLS. That few goals will sometimes get you a draw and usually a loss. And sure enough, Houston’s record is perhaps the biggest spot on their resume: 0-2-4. Six games with no wins is hauntingly familiar.

In fact, watching Houston remands me a lot of watching the Rapids’ play last year during the ten game loosing streak. There are a lot of attempts at easy solutions like kicking over the defense and hoping a forward makes a good run, all the while losing the midfield battle so that if your risky maneuver pays off, they’ve already put a few goals away on you. It should be nice watching the Rapids on the other side of that equation this year.

Another trend that would be nice to see end: The Rapids have never beat Houston on the road.

My Prediction: Houston 1-2 Colorado

And I’m being generous with that goal, Houston.

Other Game Predictions:
Real Salt Lake 1-2 Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Columbus Crew
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 New York Red Bulls (Maybe this is low-balling it for the Gals. Landon is on pace for 40 goals this season. Let’s hope he still feels that way against England, Spain, and Argentina).
Chivas USA 2-2 New England Revolution

UPDATE: I forgot to mention the worst part of Houston’s rapid decline: Houston is going to be representing the United States in the Champions League and SuperLiga this year. That’ll be a little embarrassing. At least DC is still…oh crap.

Let’s be more specific: midfield. I’ve stressed it a lot in previous posts. But it really is the strength of this club. Christian has really served as a linchpin for the midfield and, by extension, the whole team. I’ve never seen one player open up an entire team’s capabilities like him.

Which brings me to tomorrow’s game. Christian versus his former team. In case you haven’t noticed, DC is having trouble this year. They’re not that good. They’ll be lucky if they make the playoffs if they keep this up. What I wonder is how much has Christian’s trade been part of that. Clearly, the guy enhances the ability of anyone he takes the field with. Other then him, this is the same Colorado Rapids of last year, and yet watching then versus now is like night and day.

When the Rapids traded their Designated Player slot to DC for Gomez, the “experts” like the guys at ESPN were quick to call the Rapids suckers. But I wasn’t so sure for two reasons. Firstly, Christian had the capability to do all of the things the Rapids couldn’t last year. Despite Pablo’s efforts, the midfield just wasn’t there. Under virtually no circumstance did the Rapids control play. On the wings, they were decent but they would either hit the wall once they tried to move forward or just fall into the habit of trying to kick over the midfield, which usually doesn’t work to well. Gomez, on the other hand, can control the midfield, maybe better then anyone else in the league.

Secondly, which would you rather have, a solid, proven player, or a big name? Ideally with the DP slot you get both, but has that happened yet? Has a team with a DP won ANYTHING? At all? Think about it: Houston won the league, New England won the Open Cup, Pachuca won the Champion’s Cup and SuperLiga. Competitions made up so that LA could win, like the Pan-Pacific Championship, didn’t happen that way. Even the rivalry cups that were contested by one team with and one team without a DP went to the team without one: Chivas USA over LA in the SuperClasico and Houston over Dallas in the Texas Derby.

If Colorado wanted to get a player like Gomez, they had to give up something big. What else did they have? Mid-round Draft picks? Mediocre players? The DP slot was about the only leverage they had. And from the looks of what has happened so far this year, it worked.

So, to the game tomorrow. DC fans would have you believe that they are revitalized by the win over Salt Lake, but I’m not convinced. The best match up will be Gallardo vs. Pablo or Christian (depending on DC’s choice of formation). DC allows a ton of goals (2 per game, 3rd worst in the league), so if the Rapids plan on getting their high-scoring style back, tomorrow would be a good day. While it’s unlikely, if San Jose can keep Dallas from winning, the Rapids would take the West back with a win. They would have a little work to do still to get back in contention for SuperLiga qualification, but the Rapids have a pretty easy couple of games, so now’s as good of a time as any.

My prediction: Colorado Rapids 2-1 DC United.

The Rapids have been allowing a few more goals then I would like recently, so DC might slip one in on them, but the Rapids should have no trouble scoring against DC’s defense.

Other game predictions:
New England Revolution 1-1 Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew 1-1 Kansas City Wizards
Houston Dynamo 2-2 Chivas USA
Real Salt Lake 2-3 Los Angeles Galaxy (Can’t they both lose?)
San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Dallas
DC United 1-2 Chicago Fire

So why try for one the road? Because, sometimes, you play a team like the Chicago Fire on the road. And one point is a lot for a team like that to give up in their own stadium.

The Chicago Fire has the best defense in soccer. They allow half a goal per game. That’s one goal every other game. Under traditional sports stats, a typical MLS club has only a 39% chance of scoring on them at all in a given game. The good news is, the Rapids aren’t a typical MLS club. The San Jose game notwithstanding, the Rapids are very good at scoring. Even after being shutout last week, the Rapids have a goal scoring average of 1.75 goals per game, tied for 2nd in MLS. So we’ve got a good goal scoring club going up against a good goal preventing club. It should be a heck of a game at the very least.

Numbers aside, as they have all year, tomorrow’s game will come down to the Rapids midfield, on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Rapids back four is decent at breaking down attacks. Unfortunately, the Fire is not a typical club in its style of attack. Especially with Blanco, the Fire strikes quickly and without too much complexity. Many of its goals are one-touch blasts. It’s hard to break down something that never really gets set up. The only way to stop an attack like that is to keep the ball out of the Fire’s attacking third. That’s done in the midfield. If the Rapids keep possession out of the Fire’s hands, they have a real good shot at one, or even three points. A big step towards a good midfield tomorrow: wewantrapidman has a tip that Pablo should play (start?).

And three points would be monumental for this club right now. They would be back in first place in the West, one point ahead of Dallas (thanks to New England for beating them last night). If the Rapids only pull off a draw, the worst that could happen would be being tied for second in the West. It’s not great, but it wouldn’t be a disaster.

My Prediction: Chicago Fire 1-1 Colorado Rapids

I hope I’m undercutting it on the Rapids’ side, but the Fire just doesn’t give up goals very easily.

Other Game Predictions:
Toronto 1-2 Kansas City Wizards
Columbus Crew 3-1 Houston Dynamo
DC United 1-2 Real Salt Lake (Wait, what?)
Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3 Chivas USA (Come on, another Beckham “fight”).
New York Red Bulls 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Toronto 1-1 New York Red Bulls

Match Preview: MLS
Match Preview: Rapids

UPDATE: I don’t know why I didn’t think to go straight there, but not only is Pablo listed as not injured on the Rapids Match up page, Ugo is listed as Probable. We might have our actual starting XI tomorrow for the first time this year.

Reason 10,000 to love MLS: One of the powerhouses of the league has all of their players sent to another city, and then replaced with members of every team’s reserves (and Joe Cannon).

Reason 10,001 to love MLS: The league then starts threatening the city which received those players after it won back to back MLS Cups. You can’t make this stuff up.

Oh, on a tangent: did you catch “The Commissioner Speaks” (whatever that’s supposed to mean) on MLS’s website? Scroll down to the bottom where Garber insists, “I wasn’t threatening the Mayor [of Houston] in any way.” Yeah, I was just saying that I would take the team from him if he doesn’t do what I want. How’s that a threat?

So for the Rapids, it means this: Colorado has an opportunity to get a good jump on the rest of the West.
-Dallas (1 pt. back) and Chivas (2 pts. back) are matched, which means that only one of the teams chasing the Rapids will get 3 pts, or better yet, both get 1.
-Salt Lake (2 pts. back) plays Toronto, so could Dichio actually do something this week? I know, probably not (Okay, that’s probably not fair after his goal last week. But if you don’t score on Real, Danny…).
-Los Angeles (3 pts. back) plays Houston (4 pts. back), and sadly, I think they might win this one. Let’s hope that DeRo and Ching can string something together like they used to. But with Onstad out, the team will probably continue allowing 2 goals a game.

So what does all this mean? It means that with a win this weekend (and it’s a gimme if there ever was one), the Rapids should get 1-4 pts ahead in the West. And more good news: we might see Pablo back on the field. He’s listed as Probable. Really, the only member of the club that we really might like back from injury at this point is Ugo. I miss that guy.

It’s also worth mentioning that, according to the guys over at the Rocky Mountain News, San Jose picked up ex-Rapids striker Jean-Philippe Peguero, but he won’t be able to play tomorrow night.

My prediction: Rapids 2-0 San Jose

The quakes are not a team which scores goals. San Jose has proven that it is unlikely that they will score in a given game, and there’s no reason to believe that this week will be any different, especially with Bouna between the posts.

Other game predictions:
Toronto 1-3 Real Salt Lake
New York Red Bulls 1-1 New England Revolution
Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Houston Dynamo
Chicago Fire 2-0 Kansas City Wizards
Chivas USA 2-3 Dallas

Safe to say the Rapids are feeling pretty chuffed these days. With some big outlets showering them with praise – ESPN.com, Goal.com, USSoccerplayers.com – even believing in them (GASP!), The Official Organ could even take a day off…not that they ever will. Hell, the last two of those outlets even suggest that retaining head coach Fernando Clavijo might not have been such a bad idea (sacrilege or insanity; you decide!). Another win – and with the San Jose Earthquakes on the menu for Game 4, why wouldn’t they get it? – would in all probability cement Colorado’s status as April’s Flavor of the Month. Take a big lick, Rapids fans. You’ve earned the sweet, sweet reward.

Getting back to the San Jose game, predicting a win seems like leading into a jinx with your chin. As such, it’s not surprising to see wewantrapidman play it safe (and while I’m mentioning that site, I may as well plug it; that’s a good source, people, better than The Official Organ by a country mile…several country miles, even; where else can you read good dish about all the $ tied up on the bench – or even off it – or get the scoop on a possible May/June absence for the magical Bouna? Nowhere. So, go. Don’t waste your time here; I’m like one of those dolls with a damn pull-string…GO!). I’m just going to say, caution be damned! (Referring now to the content before the long, parenthetical digression.) Look, in your heart of hearts, you know you’re already counting this a win, Rapids fans. You smirked at wewantrapidsman’s cautionary mention of Gavin Glinton and Kei Kamara; c’mon, admit it. You’re already dreaming of 3-1, building on that goals-for tally, etc. It’s OK. That unfamiliar sensation you’re feeling is called optimism. No, I’m not surprised it’s new to you. Enjoy it a while because it’s nothing like automatic…I’m just sayin’.

With a win looking likely – hell, why don’t I just guarantee it? – Denver/Colorado locals could do a lot worse than head to The Dick this Saturday. There’s a really killer promo (kids’ tickets free with one adults, which makes even sideline seats affordable; it’s listed at the bottom of this), and the good folks of Class VI are advertising a pre-game tail-gate. Good times…made better by a win….remember, I guaranteed it.